Jane Corwin

NY-26: last weekend before the election

From Jazz Shaw at Hot Air:

...the GOP still hold a very substantial majority in the House. One seat more or less isn’t going to make tsunami level headlines. But that doesn’t mean it’s not worth the effort. As a final reminder, all of the money pouring into the race can do a lot, but nothing replaces good old fashioned GOTV boots on the ground in the last five days. If you know anyone in or near the 26th, it might be a good time to get hold of them, hook them up with the Corwin campaign, and give them something to occupy their time this weekend. (At least until they get Raptured.)

Read the rest.

The election is this Tuesday, May 24th.

NY-26: toss-up?

Here's what he's talking about (at Rothenberg Political Report, via The Lonely Conservative):

Both parties agree that the race remains close – “within the margin of error” is the phrase most often used – and Republican Jane Corwin certainly has a chance to energize and turnout GOP voters in this Republican-leaning district. But Democrats seem more enthusiastic right now.

After a series of focused attacks in the paid and earned media, Republicans apparently have succeeded in bringing down self-proclaimed Tea Party candidate Jack Davis’s numbers to a place where the race should be winnable for Corwin.

[....] The race remains very competitive...especially given the Democrats’ enthusiasm edge in the district.

We’re moving the race from Lean Republican to Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic.

Read Sam Foster's analysis of how things tend to go in upstate races.  Conclusion?

While I think Hochul’s momentum is overstated, Rothenberg is absolutely right; this is going to be a close election and I think that toss up status is pretty reasonable.

All of this was an addendum to the earlier part of the post which lays out how Democrat Kathy Hochul flip-flopped on Medicare, but the crickets were chirping in the lamestream media:

That's what she said.  Foster points out:

Despite Hochul’s apparent entitlement slashing stand and the lack of sunlight on Kathy Hochul’s actual budgetary beliefs, the media has been happy to give her a pass on the flip-flop.

Evidence of which is this WaPo story (via Hot Air) in which Chuck U. (the "U" stands for Unctuous) Schumer has a starring role:

 ...a race to fill a vacant U.S. House seat has turned into a referendum on the Republican plan to overhaul Medicare.

Sensing an unexpected opportunity for a Democratic rebound from last year’s losses, Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) flew here Sunday morning and moved from table to table at the Family Tree Restaurant, hovering over eggs, sausage links and pancakes to deliver a simple message.

“If you care about Medicare and want to keep Medicare as it is, she’s your person,” Schumer, the Democrats’ message man in Washington, said as he introduced diners to Democrat Kathy Hochul. “Her opponent wants to just dismantle it.”

At the next table: “If you’re gonna have Medicare one of these days, she’s fighting to keep it.”

And the next: “Her opponent will change it so you wouldn’t even recognize it.”

[....] Changing Medicare, the centerpiece of Ryan’s plan, is deeply unpopular across the country, according to public polls. The backlash to it in this economically struggling district, where registered voters are older than the national average, has turned an unusual three-way race into a dead heat.

Thus, what happens here ahead of the May 24 election will set the terms for both parties’ campaign playbooks heading into the 2012 battle for control of the House and Senate....

Mention of what Hochul said in the video above, which, by the way, essentially reiterated Obama's remark in mid-April that "...any serious plan to tackle our deficit will require us to put everything on the table, and take on excess spending wherever it exists in the budget"?  Nada, zip, zilch.  Crickets chirping.

OK, Republican/conservative peeps, GOTV.  And knock off the Angry Birds and tweet like mad.

"Redistricting Shades N.Y. Race"

Subhead: "Corwin Victory Might Ultimately Squeeze Out an Upstate GOP Freshman"

Curiouser and curiouser. At RollCall:

Capitol Hill's Republican elite — including Speaker John Boehner( Ohio) and Majority Leader Eric Cantor (Va.) — have been among Jane Corwin's most active supporters in western New York's suddenly competitive 26th district special election.

But the Empire State's own Republican delegation, particularly those upstate freshmen who occupy nearby districts, have done little, if anything, to help their prospective GOP colleague to date....

[....] There is widespread fear that a victory by Corwin, a two-term state lawmaker with stronger ties to the state House than the GOP freshmen in the delegation, could shift the balance of power in the looming redistricting process.

New York will lose two Congressional seats in 2012 because of population losses. One of those seats will likely be upstate. And state lawmakers in a divided Legislature will ultimately pick the winners and losers when they redraw the districts in the coming months...

[....] Rep. Richard Hanna, whose 24th district is beyond [Tom} Reed's to the east, is the only delegation member so far who offered to visit the 26th district to help Corwin, according to Corwin spokesman Matthew Harakal...

Read the rest.

NY-26: Like sands through the hour glass, so is the...Maze of Our Lives

The saga continues.

We've had occasional posts about the goings-on in NY-26 since the story about Chris Lee's pec-cadillo broke in early February.  The election to replace him is Tuesday, May 24th, and things certainly are interesting.  Here's the false flag Tea Party candidate, Jack Davis, in action in recent days (via The Lonely Conservative):

Way to go, Jack!  And by the way, although it's been reported that the assaultee in the second video is a cameraman,

Erie County GOP Chairman Nick Langworthy confirmed Thursday that the Republican volunteer whom Jack Davis was caught on camera slapping was in fact a member of Republican candidate Jane Corwin’s staff — reportedly her chief of staff.

Read the rest yourself—there's disagreement about what actually happened (what else is new?)—but it's safe to say that Davis is a little, well, strange.

As for Kathy Hochul, the Democrat in the race (there are really two Democrats to the race but I'll get back to that shortly), last night the NYDN was reporting:

A helpful reader tips me off that former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi joined much of the New York Democratic establishment at a just-concluded fundraiser for NY-26 hopeful Kathy Hochul on the upper West Side.

"About 120 showed up for the event," which was hosted by James Simon at his home.

According to the event's Facebook page, the prices were: Chair: $2,500, Vice Chair: $1000, Patron: $500, Friend: $250.

The original "Special Guests" were advertised as Sen. Chuck Schumer (who'll also be on the stump with Hochul on Sunday), Reps. Carolyn Maloney and Jerrold Nadler and City Comptroller John Liu.

Also on hand tonight, the tipster reports: State Attorney General Eric Schneiderman and former NY-13 Rep. Mike McMahon.

"It seemed as though the only person missing was Andrew Cuomo," my reader says...


And Jane Corwin, the Republican

“Just last week it was announced that our unemployment rate rose to 9 percent, and the last thing we want to do in a struggling economy is raise taxes on the job creators that will lead our economic recovery,” Corwin said. “As someone who has helped run a small business in Western New York, I know firsthand the devastating effect high taxes have on a small business’ ability to grow and create jobs. Washington has a spending problem, not a revenue problem, and if honored to be Western New York’s next representative in Washington I will fight to fundamentally reform our tax code to allow hardworking taxpayers to keep more of what they earn and small businesses to invest in themselves and create jobs,”

Corwin gained her firsthand perspective of the detrimental effect of high tax rates while working in the private sector. Corwin helped grow her family’s company – The Talking Phone Book – to more than 700 employees.

So how did Jack Davis end up with the Tea Party appellation in this race? Thereby hangs a tale.  As Professor Jacobson writes:

You will not hear a word in the MSM about the fact that Davis is not a real Tea Party candidate, and instead this will further be portrayed as part of a schism in the Republican Party and reflecting how the Tea Party movement hurts Republicans.

The race and the whole Jack Davis/Tea Party question is actually getting some attention not only at NRO but, of all places, at the WaPo (via Legal Insurrection):

Davis is someone who has made a career — at least in recent years — of running for this seat...

[....] After three straight losses as a Democrat, Davis courted the right — though he’s provided no roadmap to explain his shift.

After failing to win the endorsement of either the Republican Party or the Conservative Party in this special election, Davis started a ‘Tea Party’ line.

Tea party activists were miffed; Davis never talked to them or asked for their support. He just got to the Board of Elections before they did. In New York, anyone who files 3,500 signatures to get their name on the ballot can create their own party line. (In New York, candidates can run on a variety of “lines”, allowing for multiple candidates on the ballot in a general election.)

[....] If Republicans lose this race in two weeks time, expect Democrats to paint it as a referendum on the cuts to Medicare contained in the House-passed budget crafted by Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan. And, that will clearly be a part of the narrative.

At the NRO:

...Davis ran for the Democratic nomination in 2008, endorsed then-senator Barack Obama for president, and accepted $5,000 from Obama’s political action committee. But primary voters rejected Davis in favor of lawyer Alice Kryzan.

Now, Davis’s name sits on the ballot line marked “Tea Party” — a line he fabricated with the help of a petition-signature-gathering firm. Sure, Davis professes belief in low taxes, but he tosses the social-conservative agenda to the wind, and he views foreign policy through the eyes of a mercantilist. And on his signature issue, his hobbyhorse, his idée fixe — protectionism — he is just plain wrong.

So there are actually two Democrats in this race against the one Republican, Corwin.

There's a week and a half before the election.  See Jane Corwin's website for more info.

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