NY-26

Tempus fugit

First, a refresher...remember this?:

There must be something wrong with the water in NYS and I don't think it has anything to do with fracking. Good grief.
 

We here at One of Nine could eliminate the middleman and free up a page on our blog for all you county Republican males to post pec pics of yourselves, but only if you look like the hottie here:

Well, the upshot of Chris Lee's pec-adillo was that Dem Kathy Hochul replaced him in NY-26.  But time sure flies because it's already time for Hochul to defend her seat.  This could be interesting—at YNN's Capital Tonight:

Former Erie County Executive Chris Collins, a Republican who was ousted by Democrat Mark Poloncarz in November, has officially been out of a job for just six days now, but already is mulling a potential return to the public sector.
 
Multiple sources said Collins has been talking himself up as a potential challenger to Democratic freshman Rep. Kathy Hochul, who stunned the political world at both the state and national levels last year when she defeated Republican Assemblywoman Jane Corwin in a special election for the GOP-dominated 26th Congressional District seat held ex-Rep. Chris Lee (felled by Craigslist sex scandal)...
 
...We know, thanks to the 2010 Census, that New York needs to lose two House seats due to the fact that it grew more slowly than other states. The bulk of the population loss has occurred in Western New York.
 
There has been talk of creating a Monroe County-only district, which would not bode well for Democratic Rep. Louise Slaughter, whose 28th Congressional District includes parts of Erie, Monroe, Niagara and Orleans counties and it based in the cities of Rochester, Buffalo, and Niagara Falls.
 
Slaughter, 82, insists she’s going to seek a 14th term this fall, but she would likely have an uphill battle against GOP Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks if NY-28 were reconfigured to be solely within the confines of the county that she now leads. If that happens, it’s likely Hochul and Higgins won’t see their districts change much.
 
If Slaughter wins her redistricting fight, then Hochul and Higgins could see their districts change dramatically – so much so that they might end up in a head-to-head contest...
 
...Getting rid of Collins, who made no secret of his statewide ambitions and made a short-lived run for governor in 2010, was widely seen as a bonus for Cuomo, who likely had no interest in running against another Western NY opponent after Carl Paladino proved the region is a hotbed of unhappiness. (Hence the $1 billion, perhaps?) But it’s possible the governor hasn’t yet seen the last of the former county executive.
Good grief—again.  And we thought it was complicated last spring.  We'll keep you posted.
 

Constant vigilance is required

I was looking for a particular graphic at iOwnTheWorld when I stumbled across this post:

We can’t let what’s happening in Wisconsin slip under the radar… the left hasn’t. We can’t wallow in our victory and let a more determined group get the upper hand.

I’m not saying that the left is more passionate about their message, but they seem to be more organized and determined. It may be the difference in being a normal person and a progressive. Normal people are not intent on changing everyone else to be the same as themselves. Progressives cannot abide the individual spirit; everyone must agree with them.

Therefore, we are content to let people live as long as we are left to live as well. Yes, there are rules, but as long as we live within those basic rules, we are fine. Sure, we can get worked up like we did with the Wisconsin situation. But since we “won” (yes, we did pay attention to the Supreme Court Justice race and the other WI lib Judge declaring the law that the WI government passed as void) we have not needed to keep up the intensity with what has been happening.

But the progressives have. They have organized and schemed to get back what they lost. They cannot be content. They must change their world. Because of their organization they have been able to keep up the pressure and intensity in so many different arenas that we who just want to be left alone to live our lives are overwhelmed.

That’s where we bloggers and pundits come in. We will remind you of the fights that are going on. Not only do we present you with current events such as Weinergate, but as much of the covert shenanigans that the progressives are trying to pull...

Whiskey tango foxtrot?  Sure enough, I hadn't been paying attention.  At American Thinker:

The Democrats and their union comrades are pulling out all the stops in the Wisconsin in their attempt to seize control of the State Senate.  An unholy alliance of public sector unions and their Democrat enablers have joined together under the banner of an innocuous sounding organization called We Are Wisconsin.  The plan is a tried and true staple of leftist politics, get involved in the Republican primary elections and manipulate the process in order to ensure victory in the general election.

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports that in an email Kelly Steele, communications director for We Are Wisconsin said "it would be in the interest of Democrats to run candidates in the Republican primaries," adding that "it would be in the interest of flipping the Wisconsin Senate that interested Democrats contact the Democratic Party of Wisconsin."...

Definitely read the rest.  We can expect to see more of this kind of thing. At RedState:

California’s SEIU leaders are planning on getting rid of California’s conservative lawmakers by taking over the California Republican Party by recruiting their own GOP candidates...

[....] The SEIU, which already owns the Democratic Party in California is not satisfied with merely owning one party, it wants control of both parties and is willing to take over the GOP from the inside out [see Saul Alinsky].

And the "wolf in sheep's clothing" in NY-26 even got the attention of Bill Whittle and Andrew Klavan at PJTV, who also brought up the TANSTAAFL (there ain't no such thing as a free lunch) concept:

In the wake of the NY-26 special election in which there was both a false-flag candidate and massive demagoguery that succeeded because of voters' ignorance of the issues, we must, must, must pay attention, educate ourselves, and equal or exceed the intensity of the opposition.  If we don't, it's game over. 

NY-26: last weekend before the election

From Jazz Shaw at Hot Air:

...the GOP still hold a very substantial majority in the House. One seat more or less isn’t going to make tsunami level headlines. But that doesn’t mean it’s not worth the effort. As a final reminder, all of the money pouring into the race can do a lot, but nothing replaces good old fashioned GOTV boots on the ground in the last five days. If you know anyone in or near the 26th, it might be a good time to get hold of them, hook them up with the Corwin campaign, and give them something to occupy their time this weekend. (At least until they get Raptured.)

Read the rest.

The election is this Tuesday, May 24th.

NY-26: toss-up?

Here's what he's talking about (at Rothenberg Political Report, via The Lonely Conservative):

Both parties agree that the race remains close – “within the margin of error” is the phrase most often used – and Republican Jane Corwin certainly has a chance to energize and turnout GOP voters in this Republican-leaning district. But Democrats seem more enthusiastic right now.

After a series of focused attacks in the paid and earned media, Republicans apparently have succeeded in bringing down self-proclaimed Tea Party candidate Jack Davis’s numbers to a place where the race should be winnable for Corwin.

[....] The race remains very competitive...especially given the Democrats’ enthusiasm edge in the district.

We’re moving the race from Lean Republican to Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic.

Read Sam Foster's analysis of how things tend to go in upstate races.  Conclusion?

While I think Hochul’s momentum is overstated, Rothenberg is absolutely right; this is going to be a close election and I think that toss up status is pretty reasonable.

All of this was an addendum to the earlier part of the post which lays out how Democrat Kathy Hochul flip-flopped on Medicare, but the crickets were chirping in the lamestream media:

That's what she said.  Foster points out:

Despite Hochul’s apparent entitlement slashing stand and the lack of sunlight on Kathy Hochul’s actual budgetary beliefs, the media has been happy to give her a pass on the flip-flop.

Evidence of which is this WaPo story (via Hot Air) in which Chuck U. (the "U" stands for Unctuous) Schumer has a starring role:

 ...a race to fill a vacant U.S. House seat has turned into a referendum on the Republican plan to overhaul Medicare.

Sensing an unexpected opportunity for a Democratic rebound from last year’s losses, Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) flew here Sunday morning and moved from table to table at the Family Tree Restaurant, hovering over eggs, sausage links and pancakes to deliver a simple message.

“If you care about Medicare and want to keep Medicare as it is, she’s your person,” Schumer, the Democrats’ message man in Washington, said as he introduced diners to Democrat Kathy Hochul. “Her opponent wants to just dismantle it.”

At the next table: “If you’re gonna have Medicare one of these days, she’s fighting to keep it.”

And the next: “Her opponent will change it so you wouldn’t even recognize it.”

[....] Changing Medicare, the centerpiece of Ryan’s plan, is deeply unpopular across the country, according to public polls. The backlash to it in this economically struggling district, where registered voters are older than the national average, has turned an unusual three-way race into a dead heat.

Thus, what happens here ahead of the May 24 election will set the terms for both parties’ campaign playbooks heading into the 2012 battle for control of the House and Senate....

Mention of what Hochul said in the video above, which, by the way, essentially reiterated Obama's remark in mid-April that "...any serious plan to tackle our deficit will require us to put everything on the table, and take on excess spending wherever it exists in the budget"?  Nada, zip, zilch.  Crickets chirping.

OK, Republican/conservative peeps, GOTV.  And knock off the Angry Birds and tweet like mad.

The worm turns -- Lonsberry unendorses Davis

Tags:

Update:  I'm not exactly sure what Sam Foster is apologizing for here—Bob Lonsberry did endorse Jack Davis—but here's the latest twist in the maze:

Lonsberry steps up, recognizes that Jack Davis policies and positions are unacceptable and understands that this is a disqualifying flaw.

Apology accepted Mr. Lonsberry, although I too must apologize. An article I wrote over a week ago for Pajama’s Media came out today and I mentioned Lonsberry’s endorsement:

But the actions of one rogue group and a radio host have ensured that the base in NY-26 will be split and ineffectual.

I don’t have control over PJM’s editing, so I’m apologizing here and recognizing the integrity is took for Bob Lonsberry to step out and say that he was wrong.

Now, if only David Bellavia and Jim Ostrowski would learn from example…

"Redistricting Shades N.Y. Race"

Subhead: "Corwin Victory Might Ultimately Squeeze Out an Upstate GOP Freshman"

Curiouser and curiouser. At RollCall:

Capitol Hill's Republican elite — including Speaker John Boehner( Ohio) and Majority Leader Eric Cantor (Va.) — have been among Jane Corwin's most active supporters in western New York's suddenly competitive 26th district special election.

But the Empire State's own Republican delegation, particularly those upstate freshmen who occupy nearby districts, have done little, if anything, to help their prospective GOP colleague to date....

[....] There is widespread fear that a victory by Corwin, a two-term state lawmaker with stronger ties to the state House than the GOP freshmen in the delegation, could shift the balance of power in the looming redistricting process.

New York will lose two Congressional seats in 2012 because of population losses. One of those seats will likely be upstate. And state lawmakers in a divided Legislature will ultimately pick the winners and losers when they redraw the districts in the coming months...

[....] Rep. Richard Hanna, whose 24th district is beyond [Tom} Reed's to the east, is the only delegation member so far who offered to visit the 26th district to help Corwin, according to Corwin spokesman Matthew Harakal...

Read the rest.

What do you get when you cross a "Tea Partier" with a RINO?

Jack Davis (I know-—you're disappointed.  I wish I had a cleverer answer to that, too).  Interesting take by Sam Foster, frequent contributor to The Lonely Conservative, but this time writing at PajamasMedia):

...In the wake of Chris Lee’s resignation (for his shirtless stupidity), the local Republican Party put forth Jane Corwin as the establishment replacement. As Jazz Shaw points out, the decision-making under a special election in New York is left up to Republican chairmen, which gives rise to infighting. Yet Jane Corwin had a solid voting record and was rated the second-most conservative member of the state legislature. The same Conservative Party that endorsed Doug Hoffman and injected the third-party challenge for NY-23 sided with Corwin.

However, Tea Party Coalition leader Jim Ostrowski was unsatisfied with the lack of input allowed in the selection process. He decided to enlist millionaire and three-time Democrat congressional candidate Jack Davis to run on a Tea Party ballot. Up until now, Tea Party insurgents have run to the right of the establishment. Jack Davis’ run sets a new paradigm....

[....] If we knew nothing else, it would be easy to write Jack Davis off as some Tea Party candidate cooked up by the DCCC, but he does have some real Tea Party support. The Tea Party Coalition in Buffalo is run by a number of political activists. One of them is the aforementioned Jim Ostrowski, who has aided many conservative campaigns like that of Jill Rowland, who ran against Louise Slaughter in NY-28. Also, conservative radio host Bob Lonsberry has endorsed Davis...

[....] Jack Davis’ Tea Party support is greatly fractured. Five other Tea Party groups unanimously rejected Davis’ candidacy and supported Jane Corwin. But the actions of one rogue group and a radio host have ensured that the base in NY-26 will be split and ineffectual....

Read the whole thing.

NY-26: Like sands through the hour glass, so is the...Maze of Our Lives

The saga continues.

We've had occasional posts about the goings-on in NY-26 since the story about Chris Lee's pec-cadillo broke in early February.  The election to replace him is Tuesday, May 24th, and things certainly are interesting.  Here's the false flag Tea Party candidate, Jack Davis, in action in recent days (via The Lonely Conservative):

Way to go, Jack!  And by the way, although it's been reported that the assaultee in the second video is a cameraman,

Erie County GOP Chairman Nick Langworthy confirmed Thursday that the Republican volunteer whom Jack Davis was caught on camera slapping was in fact a member of Republican candidate Jane Corwin’s staff — reportedly her chief of staff.

Read the rest yourself—there's disagreement about what actually happened (what else is new?)—but it's safe to say that Davis is a little, well, strange.

As for Kathy Hochul, the Democrat in the race (there are really two Democrats to the race but I'll get back to that shortly), last night the NYDN was reporting:

A helpful reader tips me off that former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi joined much of the New York Democratic establishment at a just-concluded fundraiser for NY-26 hopeful Kathy Hochul on the upper West Side.

"About 120 showed up for the event," which was hosted by James Simon at his home.

According to the event's Facebook page, the prices were: Chair: $2,500, Vice Chair: $1000, Patron: $500, Friend: $250.

The original "Special Guests" were advertised as Sen. Chuck Schumer (who'll also be on the stump with Hochul on Sunday), Reps. Carolyn Maloney and Jerrold Nadler and City Comptroller John Liu.

Also on hand tonight, the tipster reports: State Attorney General Eric Schneiderman and former NY-13 Rep. Mike McMahon.

"It seemed as though the only person missing was Andrew Cuomo," my reader says...

Hmmm.

And Jane Corwin, the Republican

“Just last week it was announced that our unemployment rate rose to 9 percent, and the last thing we want to do in a struggling economy is raise taxes on the job creators that will lead our economic recovery,” Corwin said. “As someone who has helped run a small business in Western New York, I know firsthand the devastating effect high taxes have on a small business’ ability to grow and create jobs. Washington has a spending problem, not a revenue problem, and if honored to be Western New York’s next representative in Washington I will fight to fundamentally reform our tax code to allow hardworking taxpayers to keep more of what they earn and small businesses to invest in themselves and create jobs,”

Corwin gained her firsthand perspective of the detrimental effect of high tax rates while working in the private sector. Corwin helped grow her family’s company – The Talking Phone Book – to more than 700 employees.

So how did Jack Davis end up with the Tea Party appellation in this race? Thereby hangs a tale.  As Professor Jacobson writes:

You will not hear a word in the MSM about the fact that Davis is not a real Tea Party candidate, and instead this will further be portrayed as part of a schism in the Republican Party and reflecting how the Tea Party movement hurts Republicans.

The race and the whole Jack Davis/Tea Party question is actually getting some attention not only at NRO but, of all places, at the WaPo (via Legal Insurrection):

Davis is someone who has made a career — at least in recent years — of running for this seat...

[....] After three straight losses as a Democrat, Davis courted the right — though he’s provided no roadmap to explain his shift.

After failing to win the endorsement of either the Republican Party or the Conservative Party in this special election, Davis started a ‘Tea Party’ line.

Tea party activists were miffed; Davis never talked to them or asked for their support. He just got to the Board of Elections before they did. In New York, anyone who files 3,500 signatures to get their name on the ballot can create their own party line. (In New York, candidates can run on a variety of “lines”, allowing for multiple candidates on the ballot in a general election.)

[....] If Republicans lose this race in two weeks time, expect Democrats to paint it as a referendum on the cuts to Medicare contained in the House-passed budget crafted by Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan. And, that will clearly be a part of the narrative.

At the NRO:

...Davis ran for the Democratic nomination in 2008, endorsed then-senator Barack Obama for president, and accepted $5,000 from Obama’s political action committee. But primary voters rejected Davis in favor of lawyer Alice Kryzan.

Now, Davis’s name sits on the ballot line marked “Tea Party” — a line he fabricated with the help of a petition-signature-gathering firm. Sure, Davis professes belief in low taxes, but he tosses the social-conservative agenda to the wind, and he views foreign policy through the eyes of a mercantilist. And on his signature issue, his hobbyhorse, his idée fixe — protectionism — he is just plain wrong.

So there are actually two Democrats in this race against the one Republican, Corwin.

There's a week and a half before the election.  See Jane Corwin's website for more info.

More on the race in NY-26...the plot thickens

An update to an earlier post.  At the Buffalo News:

Suddenly, congressional candidate Jack Davis is the bull’s-eye target in a host of political cross hairs.

After posting a strong 23 percent showing in last week’s Siena College poll, the Tea Party candidate making his fourth try for the 26th Congressional District seat is now on the receiving end of attacks by nervous Republicans as well as local figures in the tea party movement incensed over his use of their moniker.

Both groups are taking aim just days after Davis told The Buffalo News he will organize with the GOP should he win the special election May 24, a move that in effect pits Democratic candidate Kathleen C. Hochul against two Republicans — Davis and official Republican candidate Jane L. Corwin.

Now the GOP is ratcheting up last week’s verbal criticism of Davis into mailers delivered throughout the district linking him to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and “liberal Democrats.”

[....] The mailings were sponsored by the state Republican Party, whose executive director, Thomas J. Basile, cited Davis’ three runs for the seat as a Democrat. “It’s obvious that Democrat Jack Davis doesn’t share our Republican values,” he said. “Voters deserve to know the truth about his dishonest attempt to distort his record. Jane Corwin is the only real Republican in this race.”

Corwin’s allies in the tea party movement were also firing away. “We at TEA New York do not support Davis. We all voted to endorse Jane Corwin, yet Davis runs on a tea party line,” complained Rus Thompson, a Grand Island resident and local pioneer of the tea party movement.

Oh, there's more.  Read the rest.

So while all this might seem to be playing into Democrat Kathy Hochul's hands, things may not be peachy in her campaign either.  State Democrats, with the exception of Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and Rep. Carolyn Maloney, don't appear to be supporting Hochul, nor are the national Democrats.

The Lonely Conservative probably has it right: "The lack of actual Democrat support for Kathy Hochul is indicative of a politico that knows Hochul is only running a close race in the headlines." 

Another nice kettle of fish--this time in NY-26

Upstate NY politics often seems like something out of Laurel and Hardy—without the humor.

Remember this and this? Well, now there's this (at the WSJ, via Jazz Shaw at Hot Air):

A poll shows Republican Jane Corwin leading Democrat Kathleen Hochul in a tight race to fill the New York congressional seat vacated by Republican Chris Lee after he sent a shirtless photo to a woman on Craigslist.

The Siena College poll released Friday shows 36 percent of likely voters supporting Corwin and 31 percent favoring Hochul. With the May 24 special election about a month away, Tea Party candidate Jack Davis received 23 percent and Green Party candidate Ian Murphy trailed with 5 percent.

Siena's Steven Greenberg says that in a district with a seven-point edge for Republicans, Corwin's support lags behind Republican enrollment

The poll questioned 484 likely voters Tuesday and Wednesday. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 points.

The polling results from Siena are here.

Oh, my.  Professor Jacobson had called Jack Davis, the supposed tea party favorite, a "false flag candidate" several weeks ago—understandable in view of Davis' past ties to the Working Families Party.  But false flag or not, The Lonely Conservative puts a different spin than the WSJ on the Siena poll figures. And, as is often the case, the commenters add value by pointing out that Siena doesn't have the greatest track record when it comes to congressional polling, which had certainly been my recollection from last fall.

Another nice mess...stay tuned...

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